Archive for the ‘Environment’ Category

Global Times editorial misses the point of an editorial

Posted: January 29, 2012 in Environment, media
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Today Global Times ran an editorial called “Human rights award misses point of China’s social progress.” It was about Chinese lawyer Ni Yulan being given the Human Rights Defenders Tulip by the Dutch government for her role in fighting forced demolitions. Following standard GT editorial protocol, it opted to forgo any use of objective figures or examples to substantiate its claims. Instead it chose the basic approach of “fuck you Western media for calling attention to China’s problems rather than playing cheerleader to the overall progress it’s made.”

A few months ago I vowed not to rebut every dumb GT editorial that I came across. After all, I have to eat and sleep some time. So rather than rebutting, I’ve decided to help GT out with a little copy-editing. I’m in journalism school currently and one of the key principles we’re taught again and again is “show, don’t tell.” I know it’s been a long time since journalism school for Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin, who usually writes these editorials, so I’ve taken the liberty of re-writing it so that it has a chance of actually influencing some people toward GT’s viewpoint. It can even keep the same title and lead:

Human rights award misses point of China’s social progress 

Ni Yulan has been awarded the Human Rights Defenders Tulip 2011 by the Dutch government after her actions against forced demolition in Beijing, becoming the latest recipient of a foreign human rights prize. An unverified report said that Wednesday, Ni’s daughter Dong Xuan was not allowed to fly to the Netherlands to accept the award on behalf of her mother, who is still awaiting trial.

Ni has served a positive role in helping those who’ve been wrongfully, and often violently, dispossessed of their homes gain awareness of their rights and seek redress. She indeed deserves recognition for the hardships and debilitating physical harm she’s endured in her crusade to help the underclass.

However, coverage on cases like Ni Yulan tend to leave a somewhat unbalanced impression of forced evictions in China. In the focus on individual stories of suffering, it’s easy to miss the greater good that many demolitions are achieving.

There are essentially two types of land seizures now happening on a wide scale in China. The kind Ni has fought against are illegal and often the result of corrupt real estate deals. These unjustly throw commoners out of their homes with inadequate compensation and often feed a speculative bubble that threatens serious harm to the economy. The central government is indeed aware of this troubling trend and should continue to take proactive measures to mitigate it.

The second kind of demolition, however, gets less attention and is actually very good for China. Currently, roughly half of China’s population lives in rural areas. These areas usually consist of single-unit houses which use coal directly for cooking and heating. The houses also often have paper windows or other deficiencies that make them very energy inefficient. This contributes to high levels of both carbon emissions and local pollutants like sulfur.

Moving these people to the cities will put them in more efficient homes and on China’s electric grid, which is quickly cleaning up its energy production. Even when coal is the energy source, plants are becoming 25-50% more efficient and are retrofitting with devices that cut 95% of sulfur emissions.

Once these people are moved from their rural homes, the land is freed up for an even more pressing concern: food. China is about the same size as the US, but has 82% the arable farmland with 420% the population. To make matters worse, desertification is claiming this land at a rate comparable to the size of Rhode Island each year. It’s no wonder 150 million Chinese still don’t get enough to eat.

If we look at a developed country like the United States, a hundred years ago farmers made up 30% of its population. In 1945, on average, it took 14 labor-hours to produce 100 bushels of corn on two acres of land. By 1987, thanks to technological development, it took under 3 labor-hours and just over one acre of land to get the same result. Today, only about 2% of Americans are farmers and they produce much more food than the 30% did a hundred years ago.

China is going through the same process now with its current 35% farming population. Moving farmers from the countryside to cities moves them up the value chain and frees up land for more efficient mechanized farming. According to Geographical Society of China President Lu Dadao, China took only 22 years to increase its urban population from 17.9% to 39.1%. It took Britain 120 years and the US 80 years to accomplish this. So it can be said that China’s development is much more impressive.

It’s estimated that China’s urban population will surpass 70% by 2035, bringing it closer to developed status. It is regrettable that the power entrusted to local officials in order to reach this goal is sometimes abused. The recent resolution of the Wukan situation showed the government’s progress in dealing with these situations, but of course, there remains work to be done.

In this long march forward, it’s inevitable that many toes will get stepped on. Many will be uprooted amidst this progress. However, we shouldn’t let the setbacks completely overshadow the critical overarching goal. After all, keeping people fed is the most important human right of all.

See, I’ll bet you came a lot closer to sympathizing with GT’s main point here than in the original piece. It’s still bullshit, but I think you’ll agree it’s much less rank bullshit. 

China on the brink? – An infographic

Posted: December 23, 2011 in Economics, Environment, Politics
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At the risk of sounding alarmist, China is in trouble. China watchers from all kinds of backgrounds would probably agree with this statement to some extent. It’s “trouble” in the abstract sense, since we don’t know exactly how it will play out. But it’s hard to look at political, social, economic and environmental trends without getting the feeling that a perfect storm of sorts is brewing. I’ve put together this infographic to try and bring together some ominous signals from several different fields. What it all means, I can’t say for sure, but it’s apparent that in the very near future China will meet challenges unprecedented in the history of mankind. For the sake of China, and realistically, the rest of the world, let’s hope the 5th generation of leaders knows what they’re doing.

Feel free to use this image, please just link back to this site.

How China might take the world to the next level, or destroy it

Posted: November 9, 2011 in Environment, Politics
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Last week China launched the Shenzhou 8 rocket, marking the first step toward its space station. The world’s population also rolled over 7 billion. Both things got me thinking about the future of mankind and how China could either rescue it or destroy it completely.

Fair Warning: From here this article gets very far-forward looking, theoretical and weird.

If you’ve never heard of the Kardashev scale, I highly recommend you watch this video, or read this excerpt from Dr. Michio Kaku’s book. It’ll be a few minutes very well spent. Basically, it’s a theoretical scale that rates civilizations (Earthly or otherwise) as Type I, II or III based on how much energy they consume.

According to Kaku, “A Type I civilization is one that controls the energy resources of an entire planet. This civilization can control the weather, prevent earthquakes, mine deep in the earth’s crust, and harvest the oceans. This civilization has already completed the exploration of its solar system.”

Type II controls the energy of their sun and is beginning travel between star systems (think Star Trek).  Type III controls the energy of a galaxy (think Star Wars). Of course, this is all highly theoretical, but, unlike most future predictions, this is based on the laws of physics and realistic requirements for attaining the needed energy. In fact, many films and tv shows like 2001: A Space Odyssey have been based on this scale.

At this point, we’re Type 0. We get energy mostly from dead plants (coal and gas).We haven’t achieved Type I, but we’re well on our way and might get there in the next century or two.

Some probable pre-requisites for a Type I civilization are an international language, culture and political system. We can already guess that the language will be English, and, in all likelihood, the culture will be largely Western influenced. But we have little idea what the political system will look like and if it will even be possible. Blocs like NAFTA and the European Union are forming, but eventually, we’ll probably need some kind of authoritative international governing body that essentially tears down physical political borders.

This is important chiefly because, under the current international system, protectionism runs rampant (of jobs, currencies, resources, etc). If I’m an American leader, I care only for my American constituents and will do what benefits them…even if it’s at the expense of other nations. Every country is the same and it makes most everyone worse off than if every leader were internationally-minded. This is most obvious with climate change action. No country wants to be the first to seriously address it and put itself at an immediate competitive disadvantage. So everyone is looking toward other countries to take their baby steps first.

There are quasi-regulatory bodies like the WTO and UN, but they don’t have the teeth to enforce real political action.

The other important reason for an international authority is simple efficiency of people and resources. Developed countries are headed toward major demographic imbalances that will see labor shortages and an aging population while most developing countries will see population explosions leaving a whole lot of able-bodied adults without jobs. If borders were torn down and free movement was easy, migration would benefit just about everyone. Then there’s China ,which fiercely regulates childbirth while underpopulated Russia is paying people to have babies. This current inefficiency may not yet be critical, but it sure as hell will be in a world of 12-15 billion – which is where it’s predicted to be by century’s end.

The worrying thing for scientists is that they see no evidence of any type of civilization when they look into space. This could be because there’s no other intelligent life in the universe, but it’s much more likely that other civilizations have been wiped out by routine extinction events or destroyed themselves before they ever made it to Type I – where they’re basically safe from extinction (until their sun explodes or they make it to Type II).

So why the hell am I talking about this on a China blog? Because China could largely determine whether we make it to Type I or kill ourselves on the way.

How China might save the world

Controlling the weather – In the (nearly 100%) likely scenario that we fail to get a hold on run away carbon emissions, we’ll have to come up with another way to stop Earth from turning into Venus through the greenhouse effect. Research is already underway on a host of measures in the geo-engineering field, which uses science and artificial means to alter the planet’s weather. Measures include things like using steam-emitting boats to enhance cloud cover (and reduce sunlight), sprinkling iron in the ocean to boost carbon-eating plankton growth, sending up space-based reflectors to deflect sunlight and several other measures.

A cloud maker

None of these have been attempted yet as they’re all very controversial. Unforeseen side-effects and irreversibility are the main worries. However, China has already shown a ready willingness to tinker with the weather. For years cloud seeding has been routinely used in China to induce rain for fighting droughts and pollution. With its massive population and scarce resources, China is already feeling a lot of the effects of climate change, from drying rivers to the Gobi desert slowly advancing on Beijing.

You can bet that while western governments are debating the ethics and side-effects of mass geo-engineering, China will already be in the process of implementing it. This could be catastrophic, but if they get it right, the Chinese might just come up with a way to get the weather control part of a Type I civilization down and save the planet from Venus’ fate.

Making use of outer space – While the American space program has no real goal and is quickly losing support, China’s is just getting warmed up. China hopes to finish its space station by 2020, land men on the moon by 2025 and travel out to Mars thereafter. To be sure, nationalism plays a large role in all of this, but China also sees space as a long-term solution to its resource needs. They’re even considering trying to mine the moon for minerals.

Left: Part of the solar energy is lost on its way through the atmosphere by the effects of reflection and absorption. Right: Space-based solar power systems convert sunlight to microwaves outside the atmosphere, avoiding these losses, and the downtime (and cosine losses, for fixed flat-plate collectors) due to the Earth's rotation. (From Wikipedia)

However, the real prize in space is energy. To meet the energy needs of a Type I civilization, we need to give up our dependence on dead plants in favor of the ultimate energy source: the sun. But solar energy in its present form isn’t going to cut it. Ground-based solar collection is horribly inefficient. To get real energy returns, we need to put our solar panels in space where they’re unimpeded by clouds and ozone.

But getting panels into space with rockets at the scale needed would be horribly expensive and bad for the environment. This is where a space elevator comes in. Using an ultra-thin carbon nanotube ribbon attached to a counterweight in space, a climber powered by a ground-based laser pulls the “elevator” into space for less than 1% the cost per pound of using a rocket.

This system could get the solar panels into space and beam the energy back. It could also build spacecraft in space, preventing the need for them to waste fuel on breaking Earth’s gravity. This would enable the inter-stellar travel of a Type I civilization and China’s desire to mine the moon.

Here’s the kicker of the space elevator: If someone threw any kind of significant research funding at it, it could probably be started relatively soon. One problem is that the nerds backing this idea haven’t managed to get anyone excited about building it. But China can only exploit its own resources (and Africa’s) for so long before needing a new solution to its energy needs – which are growing right off the chart. Necessity is the mother of invention and China will have the necessity and resources (not to mention the penchant for over-the top, literally earth-shaking, engineering projects) to get it done.

But just because China could do these things doesn’t mean they’ll do them in time. There are plenty of…

Ways China might destroy the world before it can save it

Pollution –  China already has the highest carbon emissions in the world, which are still growing in pretty much a straight vertical line if you look at that graph. The situation is already dire, but those emissions from China aren’t expected to peak for at least 20 years. The ways China could save the world could get drowned out in the pollution before they can ever have a chance to make a difference. The whole world is in a race with the clock on global warming and China’s attitude that it has a free ticket as a developing country is making that clock turn a lot faster. And it’s not likely to stop because…

The Communist Party will do anything to hold its power- Remember that part earlier about a Type I civilization being under a single international political system? The Communist Party will  never sign on for that. They snap at the slightest hint of interference with China’s sovereignty. The government and the people alike are extremely unlikely to do anything that actually weakens their political authority – especially on the verge of their re-emergence as the world’s superpower. It pushes too many sensitive historical buttons.

And the CCP puts holding its power over the country ahead of all else anyways. While it may be possible to get resources from space, they’re just as willing to find them at the expense of the rest of the world if it means keeping “social stability” (Aka “their power safe a bit longer”). That geo-engineering idea can be abused. It can melt glaciers, steal rain from other countries or divert rivers. A Chinese scientist once even proposed using 200 nuclear bombs to punch a hole in the Himalayas in order to get some sweet air circulation from India.

There will be plenty of problems with an international political body outside of China and certainly plenty of other countries pollute much more per capita. However, the world’s most populous, energy consuming and carbon-spewing nation has been educated to be nationalists hyper-sensitive to sovereignty threats under a Party of crony-capitalists perpetually holding on to their absolute power just a little longer at any expense. Getting them to go in the needed direction will be a challenge to say the least.

Conclusion

So those are a few ways China could sway the future of mankind. Again, this is very theoretical. If you look for holes in this admittedly very strange and sci-fi-ish article, there are plenty. Any number of unforeseen wrenches could be thrown in for better or worse. Like there’s the fairly plausible idea of technological singularity, where artificial computer intelligence surpasses that of humans and figures out the whole mess for us (or takes us out Terminator style). So it could turn out ok, but I’m personally trying to make the most of my time right now and be thankful I was born in this generation rather than the next. Let’s just hope China gets its ducks in a row before it’s too late.

A tale of two cities

Posted: May 16, 2011 in Environment
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Recently I left Beijing for a quick visit to my hometown in the US. It’s always a strange feeling after a long stint abroad and each time I notice little things I never thought of before. After walking off the airplane the girth of the average person was the first thing to strike me. But after comparing our horrid obesity problem to the relatively fit Chinese populace, I started noticing a few other striking contrasts.

My hometown is a quiet, sparsely-populated suburb of Kansas City…the kind over half of all Americans live in.[i] The houses are big and far apart. The residential areas are clumped together apart from commercial areas, so if I need groceries (or anything else), it’s a 10 minute drive. Downtown Kansas City (where most jobs are) is a 30 minute drive.

In fact, nothing is within walking distance from most people’s homes. Because everything is so spread out, public transportation isn’t practical. I’d have to walk 20 minutes to get to the nearest of the few bus stops in the city. Coming home without a car made me a virtual prisoner in my family’s house.

Luckily the house was huge and comfortable. It had central air blowing and a huge tank heating water 24-hours a day.  A high-powered dryer made clothes ready to wear in an hour.

I had several enormous trash cans for the 29 pounds (13 kg) of garbage I alone produce each week (if I’m an average American).[ii] Outside there was a lawn that requires constant mowing and watering five months a year. If that fertile piece of land in America’s bread basket is used a single time in a given year for anything, it’s rare, but the water that lawn requires contributes to the average 100 gallons (378L) I use each day (if I’m a typical American).[iii] You get the idea.

But eventually I had to return to Beijing…the type of urban center China plans to have 70% of its people living in by 2035.[iv] The city has over 20 million people, but I can get virtually anywhere in about an hour on its vast subway system. This is usually unnecessary though, as I can walk to numerous grocery stores, food stands, gyms, banks, hospitals, pharmacies, and malls within about 10 minutes.

However, my transportation of choice is an electric scooter. After I buy one for about $250, I’m free to drive it without any kind of license. Almost all the city’s roads have a special bike lane partitioned off from car lanes. I can get up to 45 km/h (27 mph) and go about 30km (20 miles) on a charge.

I charge the battery at night since the city gives cheaper electricity rates during non-peak hours. This makes the city’s energy use much more efficient. I’ve figured each charge costs about 30-90 cents.

My water is separated into normal tap water, hot water, and toilet water…each treated and charged differently. If I live like a typical Chinese city dweller, I’ll use about 1/3 the water I would in my American home each day.[v]

Each room has a door and a separate air-conditioner. This way energy is only consumed in the room being used. Like almost all other apartments in China, I don’t have a dryer for clothes. The clothes line usually gets the job done in about 12 hours.

The abundance of food vendors nearby means I usually buy my food often in small amounts and buy it fresh without packaging. So I only need a small fridge and my trash can be one-fifth the size of my American one (if I live like an average Chinese person).

All in all I don’t think my life in Beijing is any less comfortable than in suburban Kansas City, and it’s certainly more convenient.

Chinese cities like Beijing are by no means any kind of utopia. They certainly have huge problems like unbearable traffic and suffocating pollution. But they do draw some rather shameful contrasts to the way most Americans live.

China is driving to urbanize, not only to make people’s lives more efficient and environmentally friendly, but also to free up desperately needed farmland. China has roughly 82% the farmland the US has[vi]…with 420% the population.

With all the flack the Chinese government takes for demolishing buildings and homes on such a large scale, there’s usually a fairly compelling purpose. China’s situation doesn’t allow for the luxury of big homes, big cars and high energy living that America’s does. These demolitions coupled with urbanization are helping to ensure China’s 1.3 billion people are fed and don’t destroy themselves (and perhaps the world) with overconsumption of resources and C02 emissions.

That said, demolitions are too often abused by local leaders for useless face projects or profitable real-estate deals that line their own pockets. And usually in these cases, people are given pittance in exchange for getting (often violently) booted out. As I’ve written before, I’m very critical of these cases and think they represent a major threat to the country.

But if relocations are done in a genuine attempt to urbanize and free up farmland while peacefully compensating homeowners the full value of their home and then some, then these widespread demolitions aren’t only justifiable, but critical to China’s future. They’re not pleasant and they’re not any honest person’s first choice to handle the problem, but when you’re not blessed with vast resources and a sparse population, there aren’t a lot of alternatives.